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By Newz.Africa Desk | Abuja, Nigeria | 1 February 2026 | Keyphrase: Nigeria global growth
Nigeria is projected to become Africa’s top contributor to global economic growth in 2026. New IMF estimates show Nigeria rising ahead of South Africa. This marks a shift in Africa’s economic landscape.
IMF projection on Nigeria global growth
The IMF forecasts that Nigeria will account for 1.5 percent of global real GDP growth in 2026. This places Nigeria among the top ten contributors to global growth worldwide. It makes Nigeria the only African country in that group. South Africa earlier ranked ahead of Nigeria because of its larger nominal economy. But South Africa’s contribution is set to decline due to power shortages, logistical issues, and trade pressures.
Drivers behind Nigeria global growth
Nigeria’s expected rise follows significant economic reforms. These include currency adjustments, the removal of fuel subsidies, and changes to stabilise public finances. These measures have supported domestic demand and helped Nigeria regain momentum after years of instability. The IMF projects Nigeria’s real GDP to grow by 4.4 percent in 2026. It is expected to ease slightly to 4.1 percent in 2027.
South Africa’s declining share in global growth
South Africa faces economic headwinds. These include weak growth, long power outages, and ongoing supply chain issues. These challenges are expected to limit its contribution to global expansion in 2026.
South Africa will still have a higher nominal GDP. Yet, Nigeria’s size gives it greater weight in global growth calculations. Its reforms also enhance its global growth weight. Additionally, private sector activity increases Nigeria’s influence.
Remaining challenges for Nigeria global growth
Nigeria still faces inflation, exchange rate instability, and low real wages. The IMF notes that progress depends on sustained reforms. It warns that the projections stay conditional and change with shifting global conditions.
Original Reporting
What Newz.Africa confirmed:
- We confirmed that the IMF projects Nigeria to contribute 1.5 percent of global real GDP growth in 2026. This makes Nigeria Africa’s top contributor.
- We verified that South Africa’s slowing growth is driven by energy shortages and logistical bottlenecks.
- We also confirmed Nigeria’s expected 4.4 percent GDP growth in 2026.
- We checked cross-referencing from independent financial reporting that Nigeria’s reforms, including currency liberalisation and subsidy removal, underpin the forecasted rise.
Documents checked:
- IMF projection summaries shared through Business Insider Africa.
- Economic Confidential IMF coverage.
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