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South Africa’s trade gap with China is widening as a sharp rise in imported Chinese vehicles reshapes the local car market and adds pressure to an already skewed bilateral balance.
Recent figures show Chinese manufacturers capturing a growing share of entry-level and mid-range sales, driven by competitively priced petrol, hybrid and electric models.
Economists and industry experts warn that while cheaper imports ease consumer budgets and help contain inflation, the long-term effect on local manufacturing could be severe. The automotive sector supports many jobs and earns export revenue, so higher import penetration risks squeezing domestic production unless offset by stronger exports or policy intervention.
Paulina Mamogobo, chief economist at NAAMSA, told The Money Show that China’s auto output is expected to surge in 2026 and that expansion will target markets such as South Africa. She said competing with the scale and pricing of Chinese brands will be increasingly difficult for local producers.
Policymakers face a trade-off: protect local industry through targeted tariffs or incentives, or let market forces deliver cheaper cars to consumers. Whatever the route, a coordinated industrial and trade response will be essential to safeguard jobs and preserve the long-term health of South Africa’s automotive ecosystem.
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